IPH predicts dramatic rise in chronic diseases

Making Chronic Conditions Count: Hypertension, Stroke, Coronary Heart Disease, Diabetes. A systematic approach to estimating and forecasting population prevalence amongst adults on the island of Ireland.

The number of people suffering from chronic conditions is expected to increase dramatically by 2020.

Chronic conditions are responsible for a significant proportion of early deaths. They reduce the quality of life of the adults living with them, represent substantial financial costs to patients and the health and social care system, and cause a significant loss of productivity to the economy.   To date reliable sub-national estimates and forecasts of the prevalence of chronic conditions have not been available on the island.

The Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) has published estimates and forecasts for four chronic conditions –hypertension, angina and heart attack (CHD), stroke and diabetes (Type 1 and Type 2 combined) – for each Local Health Office (LHO) in the Republic of Ireland and each Local Government District (LGD) in Northern Ireland.  

The study found that:

1.    Very large numbers of adults across the island live with hypertension, angina and heart attack, stroke and diabetes. The prevalence of these conditions increases dramatically with age, tends to be higher in the northern and western parts of the island and lower around Dublin, and is generally higher amongst males. These differences reflect variation in demographic characteristics, local socio-economic circumstances and lifestyle issues across the island.

2.    Local socio-economic circumstances affect the prevalence of chronic conditions. Adults living in more deprived areas are more likely to be living with a chronic condition.

3.    Between 2007 and 2020, the burden of chronic conditions is expected to increase dramatically in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.  By 2020, the number of adults with these chronic conditions will increase by around 40% in the Republic of Ireland and 30% in Northern Ireland, and relatively more of the burden of these conditions will be borne by adults in the older age groups.

The study highlights the need for a stronger focus on prevention and tackling inequalities using a social determinants of health and life course perspective, and the crucial importance of building appropriate information systems to support these efforts.

Key data:

• In 2007 nearly 852,000 adults in the Republic of Ireland and nearly 396,000 adults in Northern Ireland had high blood pressure.  By 2020 this is expected to rise to over 1,192,000 in the Republic of Ireland and over 481,000 in Northern Ireland.
   
• In 2007 nearly 131,00 adults in the Republic of Ireland and over 75,000 adults in Northern Ireland had ever had coronary heart disease (CHD, angina and heart attack).
   
• The number of adults who suffer a stroke is expected to increase 48% in the Republic of Ireland and 29% in Northern Ireland.  The number of people who have diabetes is expected to increase 62% in the Republic of Ireland and 40% in Northern Ireland.

Access the full report and supporting documents

Making Chronic Conditions Count

Making Chronic Conditions Count: Executive Summary

Making Chronic Conditions Count: Technical Supplement

View an interview with Dr Kevin Balanda on the report

IPH Press Releases

IPH predicts dramatic rise (NI data) in chronic diseases including hypertension, coronary heart disease, stroke and diabetes

IPH predicts dramatic rise (ROI data) in chronic diseases including hypertension, coronary heart disease, stroke and diabetes

Media coverage of Making Chronic Conditions Count

RTÉ News: 40% rise in chronic health problems predicted

Belfast Telegraph: Life-threatening conditions could collapse NHS

Irish Independent: Chronic health problems set to soar

Irish Examiner: Chronic ailments set to soar, warns study